Why is This Topic Important to Wealth Managers? Today we discuss one issue that is a concern to most taxpayers. The Tax Gap—The difference between the amount of taxes due and those actually paid. The blogticle provides information and facts which makes for interesting discussion among wealth managers and clients.

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) recently released a report on the tax gap and taxpayer compliance and complexity. The report summarizes that the tax code compliance issues caused by complexity resulted in an increase to the overall tax gap.

It is no surprise that the federal tax system contains complex rules. These rules may be necessary, for example, to ensure proper measurement of income, target benefits to specific taxpayers, and address areas of noncompliance. However, these complex rules also impose a wide range of recordkeeping, planning, computational, and filing requirements upon businesses and individuals.

It has been shown in the past and is also no secret that complying with these requirements costs taxpayers time and money. In 2005 GAO reported that even using the lowest available compliance cost estimates for the personal and corporate income tax, combined compliance costs would total $107 billion (roughly 1 percent of gross domestic product) per year; other studies estimate costs 1.5 times as large. In addition, economic efficiency costs, which are reductions in economic well-being caused by changes in behavior due to taxes, are estimated to be even larger.

Although many taxpayers have simple forms of income, others do not—especially those who receive income from capital gains, rents, self-employment, international and other sources—and they may be required to do complicated calculations and keep detailed records.

Tax expenditures add to tax code complexity in part because they require taxpayers to learn about, determine their eligibility for, and choose between tax expenditures that have similar purposes. Tax expenditures also complicate tax planning because taxpayers must “predict” their own future circumstances as well as future tax rules to make the best choice among provisions.

Taxpayer errors also contribute to the tax gap. For example, in 2001 taxpayers underreported $6.3 billion in net income due to misreported Individual Retirement Arrangement (IRA) distributions. In addition, taxpayers may underclaim benefits to which they are entitled. According to GAO’s past  analysis, of tax filers who appeared to be eligible for a higher-education tax  credit or tuition deduction in tax year 2005, about 19 percent, representing  about 412,000 returns, failed to claim any of them.

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has estimated that the gross tax gap—the difference between taxes owed and taxes paid on time—was $345 billion in 2001.

The gross tax gap is an estimate of the difference between the taxes—including individual income, corporate income, employment, estate, and excise taxes—that should have been paid voluntarily and on time and what was actually paid for a specific year.

Of the estimated $345 billion tax gap for tax year 2001, IRS estimated that it would eventually recover about $55 billion of that through late payments and enforcement actions, for a net tax gap of $290 billion.

The estimate is an aggregate of estimates for the three primary types of noncompliance: (1) underreporting of tax liabilities on tax returns; (2) underpayment of taxes due from filed returns; and (3) nonfiling, which refers to the failure to file a required tax return altogether or on time.

Tomorrow’s blogticle will discuss issues related to life insurance.

We invite your opinions and comments by posting them below, or by calling the Panel of Experts.

Why is this Topic Important to Wealth Managers?   A wealth manager should be able to present Advanced Market Intelligence on the long-term economic impact of government spending and its ability to raise revenues with clients.

The United States faces daunting economic and budgetary challenges. The economy has struggled to recover from the recent recession, which was triggered by a large decline in house prices and a financial crisis—events unlike anything this country has seen since the Great Depression.

For the federal government, the sharply lower revenues and elevated spending deriving from the financial turmoil and severe drop in economic activity—combined with the costs of various policies implemented in response to those conditions and an imbalance between revenues and spending that predated the recession—have caused budget deficits to surge in the past two years. The deficits of $1.4 trillion in 2009 and $1.3 trillion in 2010 are, when measured as a share of gross domestic product (GDP), the largest since 1945—representing 10.0 percent and  8.9 percent of the nation’s output, respectively. [1]

Also, the recovery in employment has been slowed not only by the moderate growth in output in the past year and a half but also by structural changes in the labor market, such as a mismatch between the requirements of available jobs and the skills of job seekers, that have hindered the employment of workers who have lost their job. Payroll employment, which declined by 7.3 million during the recent recession, gained a mere 70,000 jobs (or 0.06 percent), on net, between June 2009 and December 2010. [2]

However, under current law, CBO projects, budget deficits will drop markedly over the next few years—to $1.1 trillion in 2012, $704 billion in 2013, and $533 billion in 2014. Relative to the size of the economy, those deficits represent 7.0 percent of GDP in 2012, 4.3 percent in 2013, and 3.1 percent in 2014. From 2015 through 2021, the deficits in the baseline projections range from 2.9 percent to 3.4 percent of GDP. [3]

Nevertheless, the deficits that will accumulate under current law will push federal debt held by the public to significantly higher levels. Just two years ago, debt held by the public was less than $6 trillion, or about 40 percent of GDP; at the end of fiscal year 2010, such debt was roughly$9 trillion, or 62 percent of GDP, and by the end of 2021, it is projected to climb to $18 trillion, or 77 percent of GDP. [4]

With such a large increase in debt, plus an expected increase in interest rates as the economic recovery strengthens, interest payments on the debt are poised to skyrocket over the next decade. CBO projects that the government’s annual spending on net interest will more than double between 2011 and 2021 as a share of GDP, increasing from 1.5 percent to 3.3 percent.

Beyond the 10-year projection period (though 2012), further increases in federal debt relative to the nation’s output almost certainly lie ahead if current policies remain in place. The aging of the population and rising costs for health care will push federal spending as a percentage of GDP well above that in recent decades. Specifically, spending on the government’s major mandatory health care programs—Medicare, Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, and health insurance subsidies to be provided through insurance exchanges—along with Social Security will increase from roughly 10 percent of GDP in 2011 to about 16 percent over the next 25 years. [5] If revenues stay close to their average share of GDP for the past 40 years, that rise in spending will lead to rapidly growing budget deficits and surging federal debt.

Next week’s blogticles will discuss relevant topics for wealth managers in 2011.

We invite your opinions and comments by posting them below, or by calling the Panel of Experts

 

NB: This work or parts thereof originated from previous official Federal Government publication available to the public.

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[1] See generally Congressional Budget Office. “The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2011 to 2021”.  January 2010.  http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/120xx/doc12039/SummaryforWeb.pdf.  Last Accessed 2/17/2010.

[2] Id.

[3] See generally Office of Management And Budget. “Budget of the U.S. Government Fiscal Year 2012”-Summary Tables.  http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Overview.  Last Accessed 2/16/2011.

[4] Congressional Budget Office. “The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2011 to 2021”.  January 2010

[5] See Congressional Budget Office, The Long-Term Budget Outlook (June 2010), revised August 2010.

The co-chairs of President Obama’s Fiscal Commission released a preliminary proposal to reduce the deficit by $4 trillion through 2020. The plan would reduce the deficit to 2.2 percent of GDP by 2015, cap government spending and revenue at 21 percent of GDP, and ensure Social Security’s long-term solvency. Perhaps the most dramatic component of the plan is its proposal to completely overhaul the U.S. income tax system by reducing tax rates and eliminating the alternative minimum tax (AMT)—balanced by the elimination of many tax credits and deductions.  Read this complete article at AdvisorFX (sign up for a free trial subscription with full access to all of the planning libraries and client presentations if you are not already a subscriber).

For previous coverage of Congressional action on the income tax in Advisor’s Journal, see CBO Analysis Supports Extending Tax Cuts (CC 10-49).

We invite your questions and comments by posting them below or by calling the Panel of Experts.